Helen Brown Group

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Shadow banks

Dark Alley. Image by Petr KratochvilThis week I watched another fascinating/informative/alarming/stellar PBS Frontline documentary called The Power of the Fed, which I highly recommend if you want to get a well-explained idea of what is happening with US financial markets right now.

One of the phrases that came up repeatedly during the program was shadow banking. It’s one of those terms I delved into pretty intensively during and after the 2008 financial crisis, but it’s one I haven’t heard come up again until recently.

I thought it was time to explain what shadow banking is here on The Intelligent Edge because it’s becoming relevant again and is more in the news. Which maybe isn’t such a good thing, you know?

What are shadow banks?

They’re called shadow banks because, in the flow of money globally, there are some financial institutions that operate outside of (or under the radar of) traditional banking regulation because they do things that traditional commercial banks don’t do.

On a very simple level, commercial banks (like Bank of America, or Fleet Bank, or Watertown Savings Bank) exist to store money from the public, invest it, and lend it back to the public. You can go into any commercial bank and deposit money in a savings or checking account. They will take that money and lend it to others and give you back some of the interest from those loans. Or they’ll take your money and hold it for you until you spend it using your debit or credit card.

How banks do what they do is intensely regulated by federal and international laws and agreements. There are things that commercial banks are not allowed to invest in, like junk bonds for example, because they’re too risky. Also, they’re required to hold a certain amount of money in reserve and to guarantee your deposits up to a certain amount. If you give them $25,000 to hold in an account for you, they are required to have insurance that guarantees that you’ll get it back.

Shadow banking is pervasive in the world and most of the activity centers on the creation and re-selling of collateralized loans and repurchasing agreements used in short-term lending between (non-bank) institutions and broker-dealers. There are no reserves backing the investments, and there’s no insurance to cover any losses. Which is why, when deals go well, investors can make a l-o-t of money because they take on a lot of risk.

Because of their description, it sounds like the participants are hiding in some shadowy back alleys, but you’ve probably heard of (and maybe even used the services of) some of them. Some of them even have banks as subsidiaries (yes, that’s as weird as it sounds). Here’s a list of examples of shadow banks:

  • investment banks, like Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley
  • mortgage lenders (ever taken out a Quicken Loan? In 2018 they surpassed Wells Fargo as the largest mortgage holder in the US.)
  • money market funds (here’s an example of a hybrid: Schwab is a broker-investor for money market funds that also has an affiliated bank)
  • insurance/re-insurance companies
  • hedge funds
  • private equity funds
  • payday lenders
  • peer-to-peer lenders, like LendingClub

Shadow banks move money around in the background. They bundle and invest in things in aggregate, like thousands of mortgages, and sell them on to others. They invest in start up companies (which banks can’t/won’t do). They invest in repossessed assets, and flip them for profit. They buy, re-bundle, and sell commercial bonds (including junk bonds). Amongst many other ways, they make money from their management fees and from betting that interest rates will go up (or down) on the assets they’re buying or selling. And by making risky deals that work out.

These money-movers use short-term, quickly-raised money to fund longer-term assets, so if the market goes bust in the long-term asset area, the shadow bank needs a bailout from somewhere or it goes bust, too, since there is little regulation and no reserve funds to guarantee the investments.

Anticipating that happening (and preventing it) is one of the jobs of the Federal Reserve, and their skill in watching the mile markers whip by on this current economy’s journey (and deciding where the economy should exit or put on the brakes) is where the Frontline program was particularly fascinating. I love hearing insights from people who either are on the inside, or recently were, and Frontline’s interviews pulling out what we should see next from regulators (and what might happen instead) was a real education.

How big is the shadow banking sector?

According to the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB’s) most recent Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation released in December 2020, the shadow banking sector accounted for almost half (49.5%) of the global financial system in 2019. Almost half of money moving around right now is unregulated. What could possibly go wrong?

The US is the global leader in shadow banking asset holdings with China not far behind; this sector makes up nearly one third (29%) of China’s total banking assets, according to a recent article in The Banker. China’s banking regulators are currently working to keep the sector in check by banning banks and wealth managers from holding sub-investment grade assets, and time will tell how effective the legislation is. The shadow banking sectors in Brazil, Canada, and India are also growing apace. Our economies are all interconnected, so it’s important for us to understand this as we research ultra high net worth prospects involved in these sectors, and estimate their future potential giving.

And not only that, of course. It’s important to understand because we may not even realize how deeply shadow banking impacts our own daily lives and personal assets. If you have 54 minutes, I recommend spending it on the Frontline documentary this week.

 

 

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How much is that private company worth?

Finding information about public companies is so easy! Unfortunately, the majority of companies in the world are privately-held, so finding information about them – especially how much a company is worth – is a daunting task. Thankfully, today my colleague Grace Chandonnet provides a huge hand up for those of us who aren’t professional company valuers with this enormously helpful article. ~Helen

Grace Chandonnet

                Grace Chandonnet

It’s an age-old prospect intelligence challenge. Especially if you’re new to our field, placing a value on a privately held company, and on your prospect’s stake in that company, can seem daunting. Publicly traded companies are required to report their financial information to the SEC, and that information (things like market capitalization, revenue, number of employees, and insiders’ stock holdings), is then available to the public. Privately held companies are not under the same legal obligations, so getting at their financial information is a bit trickier and less straightforward. The good news is that there are some pretty simple tricks that can help a researcher arrive at a reasonable guess as to the value of a private company.

You will need a couple of pieces of information, and the fact is that sometimes you will not be able to know enough information to make a realistic estimate. But there are some resources to help.

If you can uncover a reliable estimate of the company’s revenues, that’s a great start. The unicorn is to find a news article, often published in business or industry publications, that is talking about the company’s industry and uses your prospect’s company as an example. In this article, the exact amount of revenue is not reported, but enough information is provided about the company, a provider of solar energy, to figure it out. The company “reported a 124% gain over 2018 gross sales – an increase of $42.4 million” – when you do the math, you will arrive at 2019 gross revenue of about $76.6 million.

If I have information like this, the first thing I will do is try to find one or more publicly traded companies with a similar line of business and similar revenue, and then compare the public company or companies to the privately held one that I am researching. To find similar public companies, I use a stock screener like this one, which is a free resource.

Select Create Custom Screen and then pull down on Select Category to Current Financials and select Revenue. Enter the revenue criteria (I use a range of values, in this case between $60M and $80M). Once you’ve entered that and clicked in the box to activate the search, go back to the pull-down menu. Pull down to Company Overview and then click on Industry (scroll down in the box, it’s slightly hidden). For this example, I picked “Alternative Electricity”. As you’ll see in the image, there is only one search result, but it’s a good one – click on View Screen Matches to see results. The piece of information to look for in those results is the market capitalization or market cap, which is the total value of the publicly traded company because it is reasonable to assume that there is some similarity between the market capitalization of the public company ($373.1 million) and the value of the private one.

If I have multiple companies in my search results, I will use the average market cap for the companies in the list that are the most similar to my prospect’s company. When doing this, I leave out any outliers – where the market cap is a lot lower or higher than most of the companies in the list.

If, however, you know that your prospect is trying to sell her company or that she already has, the value you want to look for is the enterprise value rather than the market cap. Enterprise value is the amount that a company could fetch in an acquisition. You can find this number by looking up the comparison public company or companies at any number of free sources. I like Yahoo Finance, where you can find the enterprise value under the Statistics tab.

Of course, a good deal of the time, you won’t find an article that tells you exactly what your prospect’s company’s revenues are or there just won’t be good comparison public companies in your search – sometimes a close industry match isn’t available or (if you do have an estimate of revenue), there won’t be any companies with revenues in that range.

My second go-to in cases like this is the Business Reference Guide, which is a paid resource, but not terribly expensive. This resource is available as an online subscription, a book, or both. It is focused on pricing businesses and franchises and is geared toward entities that are seeking to buy a company or franchise.  It is chock full of industry benchmarks and trends, rules of thumb when assessing certain industries or franchises, and ways to assess a ballpark figure for what a company is worth using a host of different data points that you may have. If you have an estimate of the number of employees a company has, for instance, you can often find a simple multiplier to use to estimate a company’s valuation.

This of course brings us back to whether you have that information and where to find it. I like to look at my prospect’s company in several different resources, including Dun & Bradstreet and ZoomInfo, both of which are included in a Lexis Nexis for Development Professionals (LNDP) subscription, and see how these resources’ results compare to one another. If you have access to LNDP, you not only have access to both of these resources, but also to a host of others, including Gale Group Company Briefs, IAC Company Intelligence, and Lexis Nexis Corporate Affiliations.

iWave is another great source of aggregated company information. Dun & Bradstreet has often been maligned in our profession for not containing trustworthy information because its data is frequently based on self-reported numbers and/or modeling, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. I’ve been finding lately that ZoomInfo often returns data about revenues and number of employees that seem pretty accurate to me. With practice, you will be able to identify which information is probably wildly inaccurate versus information that seems quite reasonable. D&B Private Company Insight (also available in LNDP) often has information about what percentage of the company is owned by whom, and this is great to know. Estimating the value of a company is one thing, but knowing how much of the company your prospect owns is the next (and important) step to including these numbers in your capacity score.

The more you do this kind of research, the more you will trust your instincts about what seems to be relatively accurate numbers, both for revenue and number of employees. There will always be things we can’t know abut a privately held company, such as the value of inventory or machinery and other hard assets, and debt/liabilities, but I believe that we should at least attempt to understand what a privately held company could be worth when assessing a capacity rating for a business owner, and I also believe that these relatively simple calculations can result in a strong estimate.

Some additional things to consider:

  • What percentage of the company does your prospect own? If you don’t know, estimate conservatively – I like to use 10 to 25 percent ownership.
  • Is it a multi-generation family business? This could indicate that there are minority shareholders (family members) and should be taken into account when assessing your prospect’s true stake.
  • Did your prospect found, grow and continues to head the company? This could indicate 100 percent ownership for your prospect.
  • Is it venture funded? Investors will own some stake in the company if so. Sometime the percentage of company owned by the investors can be found in a news search, but not always. If not, be conservative when estimating what your prospect’s ownership percentage is.
  • A company’s valuation is not a liquid asset for your prospect until/unless she sells it, but it is an asset that should be included in your capacity rating, just as real estate values are.
  • It is conventional wisdom that privately held companies are often not as valuable as publicly traded ones, so as for all the other steps, be conservative in your estimates.

Good luck – and remember: sometimes you just will not have enough information to make a reasonable guess about a company’s valuation and this is not a bad reflection on you or your research skills!

 

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Alert and Prepared

Not long ago, a client confided to me that she was worried that her major gifts team was missing information about their top prospects. She fretted about a recent instance where information had come to light – six months too late – about a dear donor/volunteer that had sold their company to another for a significant amount of money.

Which, from a fundraising standpoint, we all know isn’t great. You’d rather know about these things in real time, or at the very least within the month.

What was worse was that the client felt like they’d missed the opportunity to celebrate with the donor. Selling their company was an event that the donor had mentioned with delight and anticipation – a new chapter was opening in their life. My client felt like the fundraising team had unwittingly blown it. Congratulating the donor half a year later felt lame and tainted with opportunism, which wasn’t the message they wanted to give. [Read more…]

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Primary Sources

Much of the time we rely on information aggregators like Lexis Nexis or terrific lookup sources through wealth screening companies, but sometimes they misinterpret, or don’t include information from primary sources. So in this week’s article, HBG team member Angie Herrington shares some great advice to help you strategize where to find prospect information directly from primary sources. The added bonus is that many of them are free. ~Helen

“Card Catalog Sculpture” photo by Sage Ross https://bit.ly/2NLZtPl

In college, I majored in history and was required to take a class on methodology. Holding our blank index cards, our class walked to the university’s library, met with the reference librarian, and then were set free to browse… the card catalog drawers. We were there to learn about historical evidence – primary and secondary sources. [Read more…]

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Back-of-the-napkin privately-held company value calculator

Coming up with the value of a privately-held company is one of the hardest balancing acts that prospect researchers do. No matter how hard we try, we will get it wrong around 100 per cent of the time. The only consolation is that it’s very likely that not even the owner of the privately-held company has any idea what their own company is really worth. The value is simply what someone else is willing to pay on any given day.

The Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council reports that the vast majority of companies in the United States – 99.7% of employers – are privately-held small businesses, and firms with less than 20 workers made up 89.4 percent of businesses in America.

That’s a lot of businesses that aren’t publicly-held, but when I talk with researchers about things that are hard to do, there are few who don’t express doubt in their ability to read and interpret SEC forms. Understanding them is important, but it’s not what a researcher is going to spend 99.7 percent of their time doing, and – to my mind – valuing privately-held companies is harder by about the same percentage.

Of special note is the fact that, according to a U.S. Small Business Administration report, women own 36% of all businesses and 20% of employer businesses. That figure continues to grow as entrepreneurial women, eager to sidestep short-runged corporate ladders, continue the trend of building opportunities for themselves. As these successful women become a larger part of our frontline fundraisers’ portfolios, understanding how to value their companies (and understand their philanthropic priorities) becomes increasingly important for us, too.

So, how do we value privately-held companies?

Normally when we want to value a privately-held company, we do one of a few things:

  1. We get lucky and find that an intrepid business reporter has valued it for us.
  1. We get lucky and learn that the owner has revealed the information themselves, either on their company website, or in a published interview, or in conversation with a fundraiser.
  1. We get lucky and see that Dun & Bradstreet has estimated a value for the company in its Business Information Report. (NB: this is a red herring. D&B estimates are to be trusted as much as an unsupervised Labrador with a coffee table full of appetizers.)

When none of those pans out, we start doing the hard work of estimating a privately-held company…

  1. We look for a comparable company or “comp,” which means that we try to find a publicly-held company that is in the same line of business with the same number of employees in the same geographical area with roughly the same sales. We then look at the publicly-held company’s market value, and…there you go. (Except there you don’t go, because finding apples-to-apples comps are as common as finding a lost Picasso print in someone’s attic. It happens, but not often.)
  1. We go through a highly scientific process to estimate value using betas, estimating revenue, expenses, etc. to come up with a value. To assist you in this venture if you dare, here is a 170-slide masterclass from NYU professor Aswath Damodaran walking you through four valuation examples. (It’s useful to know this, and I do highly recommend further education on how businesses work, and balance sheets, and P & L statements because you should know this, but we’re prospect researchers, not Goldman Sachs executives working out an IPO and we’re usually on a deadline.)

SO:

  1. Here’s my small business, private company, back-of-the-napkin estimating tactic to use if you don’t know the company’s sales. (If you do know its sales, stop now and go to the end of this article).

This technique won’t work for every company (the sole-practitioner attorney or the self-investing money manager, for example). But I think it’s a quick conservative baseline to use for companies with ~5-25 employees because we’re going to focus on how much a small company with employees has to generate annually in order to simply pay their bills. If they’re running a demonstrably successful company, then you can be sure they’ve got at least that much (and probably more besides). How much more you  want to add into the calculation based on your – and your frontline fundraiser’s knowledge – is then up to you.

First, you calculate Payroll

How many employees are there? Check the company’s website, or D&B (caveat: see above), or LinkedIn, or the company’s Facebook page.

What’s the average salary for people in that profession? Check salary websites or job descriptions on search & recruitment sites for ranges.

Now, take the employee number times the average salary = S

Multiply S times .3 to calculate benefits = B (benefits cost ± an additional third of an employee’s salary)

If this is a profession that frequently rewards employees with extras like bonuses or commission, multiply that average amount per employee to calculate Extras = E.

Add S + B + E = Payroll

Second, look at annual Costs

Ignoring things that a business owner would only have to buy once (like computers, desks and chairs, etc.) what does it cost to do what this profession does annually?

  • Insurance?
  • Rent/Mortgage payment/Upkeep?
  • Travel/Fuel?
  • Software fees? (Lexis? Bloomberg? Salesforce?)
  • Phone/internet?

Add these together to estimate Cost = C of doing business.

Add Payroll + Cost to calculate Total Expenses

This figure is what the owner has to come up with every year simply to stay afloat, so you know the company’s sales are at least its Total Expenses. (And so, to circle back to my comment earlier, if you know the sales figure, you can simply use that as a baseline to spitball the value of the company.)

Voilà, a back of the napkin company value.

Caveat caveat blah blah caveat

This isn’t perfect, I know that. But there are a lot of things we’re never going to know, like a privately-held company’s sales, its debts, and if the owner is offshoring profits.

But if we have a pile of profiles to work on and need to come up with a baseline estimation, I offer this rough estimate as a good place to start.

I’d love to hear if you have other off-the-cuff valuations that you use!

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Ski resort real estate

It may be the end of ski season for another year, but we’re always trying to figure out what factors impact the value of real estate in those wealthy areas. This week, Colorado-based HBG Researcher Josh Ostroski shares his insider information on three things he knows really well: skiing, real estate, and prospect research! ~Helen

Josh and his daughter hit the slopes

I grew up in a skiing family in New England and it has been a passion of mine since I can remember. One day a colleague at HBG was researching someone that had a house in Lake Tahoe which had a market value drastically lower than what they paid for it. My colleague asked what some of the factors could be that might cause this, outside the obvious decline due to the housing crisis that hit California especially badly. The more we discussed it, the more it became obvious that there were more things at play in these specialized locations than elsewhere. I decided to look more deeply into the factors that impact housing costs in resort towns, and I thought you might be interested to know what I found. [Read more…]

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Philaepángelma

As #ResearchPride Month comes to a close I wanted to say thank you to everyone – practitioners and our kind vendor colleagues alike – who participated with loads of tweets, podcasts, blog posts, articles, and even re-posting oldies-but-goodies from years past. It’s been another great month of sharing.

One of the main themes that I noticed this year was the outpouring of gratitude for the way our profession is generously collaborative, and I think that’s something we shouldn’t take for granted. [Read more…]

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Justification

I had a nice email back-and-forth with a colleague the other day discussing a new trend she was seeing in the field. As the conversation wound down to a close, I wrote that I looked forward to seeing her at the Apra International conference (Pittsburgh! August 8-11!). She came back for one last reply, saying that after nearly 20 years of going, the vice president of fundraising was asking her for justification of the expense. [Read more…]

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Rock Solid

This past year has been enough to make anybody’s head spin. What would have been the normal amount of news in one of 52 average pre-2017 weeks has been crammed into 341 news cycles of increasingly elevated astonishment. Nearly every day feels to me like watching a piranha feeding frenzy in the Amazon.

Will we end up losing our capacity to relax? Or to believe that we aren’t just missing something in our newsfeed if we don’t immediately see evidence that something shocking has happened overnight? [Read more…]

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The allure of finding the obscure

Several years ago, a researcher I’ll call Chris spent a good two hours tracking down a retired donor’s email address. The request was from a fundraiser who really wanted to contact the donor to say thank you for an unexpected and generous gift.

It took a long while, but Chris finally found the email address through sheer doggedness and determination, and Chris was pretty proud. [Read more…]

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